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Friday, August 05, 2016

Wake Up Call Allendale Advisory Center

Wake Up Call Allendale Advisory Center: Grain markets are higher on�position evening ahead of the weekend and after yesterday's low volume trade. Traders will watch for any new export announcements this morning for signs of continued demand strength.

Weekly corn export sales released yesterday had sales of 1,227,394 metric tonnes (331,142 old 896,972 new). That was just over the 800,000 - 1,200,000 trade expectation. Shipments, however, should be the focus, not just sales. Actual shipments of old crop corn total only 1.592 million bushels. Allendale sees this year's remaining shipments at 204 million and donations of 46 million. This brings us to a working old crop corn "export" of about 1.842.

Soybean sales over the past week totaled 1,670,347 metric tonnes (542,185 old 1,128,162 new). That was within the 1.1 - 1.8 million expectation. Current sales total 1.926 million bushels. Current soybean shipments total 1.697 million bushels. We would expect 109 million bushels more by the end of August. Along with a minor adjustment for donations we would assume 1.816 in total exports based off our shipment model. That would surpass USDA's 1.795 estimate.